🌿 Climate Smart Community — Niagara County, NY

Building a Resilient
Future for Newfane

The Town of Newfane is taking meaningful action on climate change — documenting greenhouse gas emissions, assessing community vulnerabilities, and charting a path toward a more resilient, sustainable future along the shores of Lake Ontario.

Explore the Reports Download PDFs
104,105
Metric Tons CO₂e
Emitted Annually
🌡️
+4–11°F
Projected Temp.
Rise by 2100
👥
9,239
Town
Population
🚗
53%
Emissions from
Transportation
📅
2027
Comprehensive
Plan Update
About This Initiative

Climate Smart
Communities Program

The Town of Newfane is a registered municipality in New York State's interagency Climate Smart Communities (CSC) program, currently pursuing Bronze Certification. In 2025, the Town Council adopted the CSC pledge — committing to take action to minimize the causes and prepare for the impacts of climate change. This hub presents two foundational reports: a community-wide Greenhouse Gas Inventory and a Building Climate Resilience assessment, both developed with the University at Buffalo Regional Institute in Spring 2026.


Together, these documents represent Newfane's commitment to evidence-based decision-making and its vision for protecting the health, safety, and economic vitality of this Lake Ontario shoreline community — home to prime farmland, the Niagara Fruit Belt, Olcott Beach, Eighteen Mile Creek, and a cherished 200-year heritage.

🏆 CSC Priority Actions — Completed & In Progress

PE2
Community GHG Inventory — Completed May 2026. Full sector-by-sector breakdown published.
PE7
Climate Vulnerability Assessment — Completed Spring 2026 by UB Environmental Design Studio.
PE7
Plan & Policy Evaluation — Reviewed Newfane LWRP, Master Plan, Zoning, Niagara County plans.
PE6
Comprehensive Plan Guidance — Recommendations integrated for 2027 plan update.
PE9
Community Engagement — Education & engagement on climate impacts underway.
PE3
Gov. Building Energy Audits — Highway Department upgrades and solar exploration in progress.
Two Foundational Documents

The Reports

These two documents — developed in partnership with the University at Buffalo — form the evidence base for Newfane's climate action strategy.

UB Environmental Design Studio — Spring 2026

Building Climate Resilience in Newfane, NY

Climate Vulnerability Assessment & Comprehensive Plan Guidance

  • 🌡️ CMIP6 climate projections for Niagara County through 2100 — temperatures rising 4–11°F
  • 💧 Water quality vulnerabilities: algal blooms, E. coli, invasive species, dissolved oxygen decline in Eighteen Mile Creek
  • 🌾 Agricultural risk assessment for tree fruit, grapes, field crops & recommendations for climate-resilient farming
  • 🏗️ Infrastructure analysis: shoreline erosion, stormwater management, road resilience & power grid hardening
  • 💼 Economic vulnerabilities & opportunities in tourism, agritourism, aging housing stock, and labor
  • 📋 Guidance for the 2027 Comprehensive Plan update with co-benefits framework
📄 Download PDF View Key Findings →
UB Regional Institute — May 2026

Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Town of Newfane, NY — Annual Emissions by Sector

  • 📊 Total annual emissions: 104,105 MTCO₂e — matching the Buffalo-Niagara regional average of 11.2 MTCO₂e per person
  • 🚗 Transportation dominates at 53% — Newfane residents travel 33% more than the regional average due to dispersed land use
  • 🏠 Residential sector: 18% of emissions — per capita rates 27% below regional average thanks to newer housing stock
  • 🌱 Agriculture generates 8% of emissions — far above the 2% regional average, driven by soil management & tillage
  • 🏭 Industrial sector: 4,357 MTCO₂e, mostly ODS substitutes from the Nouryon Chemical plant
  • 🗺️ Covers all 7 sectors: Transportation, Residential, Commercial, Industry, Waste, Agriculture & Energy Distribution
📄 Download PDF View Emissions Data →
CMIP6 Model Projections — Niagara County

Expected Climate Impacts by 2100

Based on three socioeconomic pathways (SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) from the 2022 IPCC Assessment Report, cross-validated against NOAA historical data for Niagara Falls (2015–2025).

🌡️
Summer Temperatures
+4°F to +11°F
Average daily max rise. Worst case: July/August average ~95°F. All winter months projected above freezing by end of century.
🌧️
Annual Precipitation
+1.1 to +5.1 in.
Highest increases in winter (+2.8 in.) and spring. Summer precipitation likely to decrease. Fall direction uncertain.
🐟
Creek Water Quality
DO < 5 mg/L
Eighteen Mile Creek summer temps exceed 80°F multiple days. Dissolved oxygen dropping — threatening Steelhead Trout, Chinook Salmon & Northern Pike habitat.
🍎
Agriculture at Risk
High Certainty
Early frost damage to apples, peaches & cherries. Heat stress for grapes. Spotted lanternfly, Japanese beetle & cereal leaf beetle expanding due to warmer winters.

Model Certainty: Winter and spring precipitation increases are very certain across all models. Summer precipitation decrease carries moderate certainty. Fall trends remain uncertain. Temperature increases are highly consistent across all 28 CMIP6 models tested. Runoff is projected to decrease all seasons despite precipitation increases, due to higher evapotranspiration from warming.

Annual GHG Emissions by Sector
104,105
MTCO₂e
per year
  • Transportation 53% · 55,473 MTCO₂e
  • Residential 18% · 17,898 MTCO₂e
  • Commercial 9% · 9,357 MTCO₂e
  • Waste Management 8% · 8,176 MTCO₂e
  • Agriculture 8% · 8,189 MTCO₂e
  • Industry 4% · 4,357 MTCO₂e
  • Energy Distribution 0.6% · 657 MTCO₂e
Sector-by-Sector Analysis

GHG Emissions by Source

Newfane's per-capita emissions (11.2 MTCO₂e/person) match the regional average but with a very different mix — transportation is 33% higher than the region while residential is 27% lower.

🚗 Transportation — On-Road Vehicles
39,771 MTCO₂e
🚜 Transportation — Off-Road Equipment
11,320 MTCO₂e
🔥 Residential — Natural Gas
12,363 MTCO₂e
🏢 Commercial — Natural Gas
7,976 MTCO₂e
🗑️ Waste — Solid Waste Landfill
6,445 MTCO₂e
🌱 Agriculture — Soil Management
6,424 MTCO₂e
🧪 Industry — ODS Substitutes (Nouryon)
3,927 MTCO₂e
🛁 Waste — Septic Systems (44% of homes)
1,063 MTCO₂e

Key Insight: Off-road equipment accounts for 20% of Newfane's transportation emissions vs. 11% regionally — reflecting the town's strong agricultural base. Electric vehicles represent 1.0% of registered vehicles vs. 1.5% regionally.

Climate Vulnerability Assessment

Four Areas of Focus

The University at Buffalo Environmental Design Studio assessed Newfane's climate vulnerabilities across four interconnected domains, with targeted recommendations for each.

💧 Water Quality Vulnerabilities

  • Legacy contaminants from historical industrial use
  • Agricultural runoff entering creeks and Lake Ontario
  • Rising lake and stream temperatures → algal blooms
  • E. coli bacteria → beach closures at Olcott Beach
  • Fish Consumption Beneficial Use Impairment
  • Invasive species: zebra & quagga mussels
  • Eighteen Mile Creek summer temps exceeding 80°F — Steelhead Trout (optimal 50°F) and Northern Pike (needs 7+ mg/L DO) at risk

✅ Water Recommendations

  • Superfund Site advocacy and monitoring
  • Riparian vegetation planting to cool the creek; deepen creek bed in critical reaches
  • Stream restoration with riffle pools and aeration to reduce algal growth
  • Clean piers and agitate stagnant surface water for bacteria control
  • Continue knotweed removal; monitor invasive mussels with DEC updates
  • Update fish consumption restriction signage at creek access points
  • Community engagement on waterway stewardship and beneficial use impairments

🌾 Agriculture Vulnerabilities

  • Early blooming followed by frost damage — apples, peaches, cherries
  • Heat stress & drought impacts on corn and grapes (no growth above 90°F)
  • Spotted lanternfly, Japanese beetle & cereal leaf beetle expanding northward
  • Fungal disease pressure increases with warmer, wetter winters
  • Summer drought increasing reliance on municipal water supply
  • Labor shortages threatening harvest capacity

✅ Agriculture Recommendations

  • Cover crops: reduce erosion, increase rainfall infiltration, hold moisture during droughts
  • Biochar application: increases water retention, improves soil structure and nutrients
  • Rotational grazing: improves soil structure, reduces fertilizer & pesticide needs
  • Retention ponds & solar-powered irrigation pumps for drought resilience
  • Wood-chip bioreactors to slow runoff and trap excess nutrients
  • Frost fans/wind machines to prevent early-bloom frost damage
  • Explore climate-resilient crops: quinoa, cowpeas, sorghum, nonpareil almond, apricots
  • Crop biomass monitoring for early pest and stress detection

🏗️ Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

  • ~18 lakefront parcels without protective hardening measures
  • Aging stormwater infrastructure — pipe break occurred March 2026
  • Road cracking and surface failure from temperature-freeze-thaw cycles
  • Power line vulnerability during lake-effect storms and high winds
  • Limited alternative power sources during extended outages

✅ Infrastructure Recommendations

  • Proposed Lakeshore & Riparian Protection District (overlay zoning) — 100 ft undisturbed vegetative buffers
  • Shoreline protection fee: $0.50–$1.00 per $1,000 assessed value → $15,800–$31,000/year revenue
  • Rain gardens at Krull Park; bioswales and on-farm irrigation ponds for decentralized stormwater
  • Regular road ditch maintenance, grading, and snow barriers to reduce plowing frequency
  • Frost-resistant flexible pavement with lightweight aggregate thermal insulation layer
  • Structured tree-trimming maintenance cycle with National Grid; no-tree zones near power lines
  • Community-level microgrid with renewables + battery storage; explore agrivoltaics
  • Advocate for underground power lines in highest-risk areas; replace wooden poles with metal

💼 Economic Vulnerabilities

  • Economy deeply climate-sensitive: agriculture, tourism, sport fishing, wine trail
  • Small businesses have limited capacity to recover from climate disruptions
  • 35% of households are low-income — vulnerable to extreme weather & heat
  • Aging housing stock makes weatherization financing difficult
  • Aging population (20.6% over 65) lacks adequate aging-in-place services
  • Day cares and K-12 schools lack air conditioning for hot summers ahead
  • Winter months see very low economic activity currently

✅ Economic Recommendations

  • Complete shoreline hardening & waterfront improvements to protect core economic assets
  • "Newfane Farm & Shore Experience" — joint marketing & pooled resources for agritourism
  • Position Olcott as a cool lakeside escape: "Cool Down at Olcott" summer campaign
  • Weekend shuttle service with Discover Niagara from Lockport or Niagara Falls
  • Develop year-round Krull Park programming — ice fishing, ice skating in winter
  • Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) & Weatherization Assistance for low-income households
  • Expand aging-in-place services: home health aides, drivers, care workers boost local employment
  • 4-H and school partnerships to address agricultural labor shortages
Comprehensive Plan Update — 2027

Key Recommendations for Action

The 1998 Master Plan — up for review in 2027 — presents a generational opportunity to embed climate resilience into every element of Newfane's planning framework.

01 — WATER
💧
Stream & Watershed Restoration
  • Riparian vegetation buffers along Eighteen Mile Creek
  • Rain gardens at Krull Park & public lands
  • Wetland restoration and management program
  • Habitat complexity improvements (log jams, riffle pools)
02 — LAND
🌱
Soil Health & Sustainable Farming
  • Cover crops, mulch, biochar adoption incentives
  • Rotational grazing standards support
  • Climate-resilient crop diversification guidance
  • Agrivoltaics pilot program on farm land
03 — SHORELINE
🌊
Lakeshore Protection District
  • Overlay zoning for 100 ft vegetative buffers
  • Shoreline protection fee (up to $31,000/yr)
  • Impervious cover regulation & monitoring
  • Wave breaker completion for remaining 18 parcels
04 — FLOOD
🏘️
Decentralized Stormwater Management
  • Integrate ditch/culvert systems with decentralized solutions
  • Retention ponds & bioswales along public rights-of-way
  • On-farm irrigation ponds to reuse stormwater
  • Prioritize high-risk interventions along Eighteen Mile Creek
05 — ENERGY
⚡
Grid Resilience & Clean Power
  • Community microgrid with battery storage
  • Solar panels at Highway Dept. & municipal facilities
  • Agrivoltaics (dual-use solar + farming)
  • Advocate for underground lines in storm-risk areas
06 — PEOPLE
👨‍👩‍👧
Community Resilience & Housing
  • HEAP & WAP weatherization for low-income households
  • A/C support program for schools & day cares
  • Expand aging-in-place home health services
  • Meaningful public engagement through Comp Plan update
Newfane's Path Forward

"These efforts reflect a broader commitment within the Town of Newfane to build on current progress and continue advancing practical, community-driven solutions that support sustainability and resilience over time."

— Town of Newfane Community GHG Inventory, May 2026

2024
Bicentennial &
CSC Pledge
2025
Town Council
Adopts CSC
2026
GHG Inventory +
CVA Published
2027
Comprehensive
Plan Update
01

Share & Engage the Community

Make GHG Inventory publicly available via website, newsletter, social media & print. Host community events and surveys to build awareness and buy-in.

02

Develop a Local Climate Action Plan

Build on GHG inventory to set an emissions reduction target & roadmap — a CSC Priority Action with dedicated resources and planning guidance available.

03

Lead by Example at Public Facilities

WWTP upgrades, Highway Dept. solar, LED conversions & weatherization at public buildings — with visible signage showing dollars saved and emissions avoided.

04

2027 Comprehensive Plan Update

Integrate climate resilience co-benefits across all plan elements: economy, housing, infrastructure, environment & green infrastructure. Meaningful public engagement early and broadly.

05

Repeat the GHG Inventory Regularly

Update inventory every 2–3 years to track trends, assess policy impacts, and demonstrate measurable progress toward reduction targets — evidence the community can trust.

Official Documents

Download the Full Reports

Both documents are available for free download, review, and printing. Prepared for the Town of Newfane Climate Smart Communities Task Force by the University at Buffalo Regional Institute.

Building Climate Resilience in Newfane, NY

Climate Vulnerability Assessment UB Environmental Design Studio Spring 2026

39-slide presentation covering the Climate Smart Communities program, plan & policy evaluation, CMIP6 climate projections, and vulnerability assessments & recommendations for water, agriculture, infrastructure, and the local economy. Includes guidance for the 2027 Comprehensive Plan update.

📄 Download PDF — Building_Climate_Resilience.pdf

Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory

GHG Emissions Data UB Regional Institute May 2026

26-page detailed report covering all seven GHG emission sectors for the Town of Newfane. Includes methodology, per-capita comparisons with the Buffalo-Niagara region, sector-by-sector data, maps of commercial/industrial facilities, and actionable next steps for Newfane's climate journey.

📄 Download PDF — Community_Greenhouse_Gas_Inventory.pdf

Prepared By

University at Buffalo Regional Institute (UBRI)
School of Architecture and Planning, State University of New York at Buffalo
Regional Coordinator — NYS Climate Smart Communities Program, Erie & Niagara Counties
Erin Hanaburgh, Josh McClain — GHG Inventory
Dr. Lucie Laurian, Ambreen Regman-Veal — Urban & Regional Planning

Student Team — Environmental Design Senior Studio

Dakota Anderson · Sydney Ardanuy · Uriel Cortes-Hidalgo · Dakota DeRidder · Josh Gramitt · Nadir Hassan · Sam Marques · Jason Myrick · Francis Sagnia · Michael Smith

For More Information

Town of Newfane, NY
Climate Smart Communities Task Force
townofnewfaneny.gov/
environmentalinitiatives